NORRIS, PIASTRI, OR
VERSTAPPEN – WHO
LOOKS STRONGER AT
EACH OF THE FINAL
FOUR ROUNDS?
With just four rounds left in the 2025 F1
season, Lawrence Barretto assesses who
could contend at the remaining races as
the championship battle nears its climax
A couple of months ago, both the Drivers' and Teams' Championships looked like foregone conclusions. Oscar Piastri had just won the Dutch Grand Prix – and with McLaren team mate Lando Norris suffering a mechanical failure when running second, the Australian's advantage over Norris ballooned to 34 points. Max Verstappen, meanwhile, was a monstrous 104 adrift in P3...
But while McLaren converted that advantage by wrapping up the defence of the Team's Championship three races later in Singapore, a plot twist had been written in courtesy of Red Bull and Verstappen. With their rivals fully focused on development for the new-for-2026 regulations, Red Bull opted to divert a bit more cash to this year's car – and it was paying off.
Verstappen won three races in four weekends and was forcing his way into title contention while Piastri was going the other way. Having been on the podium in 14 of the first 16 races of 2025, Piastri is now on a run of four races outside the top three and has lost his grip on the title lead for the first time since Saudi Arabia.
It means that with four race events to go, Norris is our new leader – having outscored Piastri in each of the last five race weekends – and heads Piastri by one point, with Verstappen lurking in P3, only 36 points off the pace. Meanwhile, in the Teams' Championship, Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull are separated by just 10 points in the tense fight for second.
Are we set for a title decider in Abu Dhabi? Can Verstappen pull off the greatest F1 comeback of all time? Will Red Bull rescue P2 in the Teams' Championship after a blip? And can Ferrari finally win a race in 2025? Much will depend on how all the main protagonists' respective cars perform on the final four tracks of the year...
INTERLAGOS, SAO PAULO
The medium- and high-speed turns that litter Brazil's iconic and undulating Interlagos high-downforce circuit demand aero efficiency – and McLaren has that in buckets, meaning their cars should have the upper hand there if it's dry.
Norris was the stronger of the two McLaren drivers last year and has the momentum this year after his crushing victory in Mexico. However, Piastri should in theory be back on the pace, as he's swapping the low-grip slippery conditions of Mexico (which meant he had to drive differently to get speed out of the car) for high-grip and downforce (where he is more comfortable with the car) in Brazil.
McLaren will be wary Red Bull have closed the gap when it comes to performance on high downforce tracks – and thus the papaya cars will likely not enjoy the same kind of advantage they enjoyed earlier this year as they won 12 of the first 15 Grands Prix.
That advantage will reduce further if the heavens open, with Red Bull and Verstappen becoming the overwhelming favourites. The reigning four-time World Champion delivered one of the all-time great drives last year to win in soaking conditions from 17th on the grid.
If it rains across the weekend – as is currently forecast – Verstappen is very well-placed to mop up the top points in the Sprint, too, and suddenly could find himself around a Grand Prix win's worth of points behind the championship lead.
When it comes to the Teams' Championship, Red Bull are in the box-seat to overcome Ferrari and Mercedes should Verstappen excel and team mate Yuki Tsunoda continue his upward trajectory.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA
If Brazil will likely suit McLaren, Las Vegas' low-downforce street circuit that features long straights and slow corners will likely be the opposite. Their record in the two previous editions is nothing to write home about, with neither Norris not Piastri having qualified or finished higher than P6.
On paper, Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull should be in the fight for pole and the win. For Ferrari, it is easily their best shot to end their winless run in 2025, with the Italian squad having taken a podium in each race, and a pole in 2023 and P2 on the grid in 2024.
Mercedes will likely revel in the cooler desert conditions, too – with George Russell having secured victory ahead of then team mate Lewis Hamilton last year – while Red Bull's low downforce prowess makes them genuine contenders, too.
This is a real opportunity for one of the three teams vying for P2 to stamp their authority on that position, given they have the potential to score big. For Verstappen, he'll hope he can find a way to win – and that Ferrari and Mercedes get in between him and the McLarens – so that he can make some good ground in the title fight.
For the McLarens, their car is more of an all-rounder this year – but their advantage over the field is at its smallest on low downforce tracks. They should be in the fight if they can be perfect on what will be the toughest test for them in the final four events.
"Vegas, if anything, has proven to be a challenge for McLaren overall," said McLaren Team Principal Andrea Stella. "Last year we were not competitive. We needed to learn something, if anything, during the race, just to try and make some changes to see if we could stop the graining.
"This year the tyres, they do grain much less than last year, so it could be a slightly different Vegas from this point of view. It will be interesting to see. I think for Lando and Oscar, there's no problem in terms of track layout coming in the next four races."
LUSAIL, DOHA
It'll be back to McLaren heartland in Qatar in theory, as the fast, flowing nature of the Lusail circuit should suit the papaya cars beautifully.
They clinched a 1-2 in the Sprint in 2024 but they were missing something in Qualifying and lost out to Verstappen and Russell, leaving them compromised for the race.
Expect them to be in better shape this year, on what is the final Sprint weekend of the year, but also expect Red Bull to be a threat. An engineering and driver feedback approach to setting up their race car for the weekend has yielded big gains in recent events – and they showed last year they are capable of nailing a Qatar race weekend.
Ferrari would have expected to have an advantage over rivals Mercedes in Qatar, given the latter's consistent struggles in the heat – but the Silver Arrows' supreme pace in hot and humid Singapore where Russell secured an impressive victory suggests they could be a real factor.
Once again, the relative competitiveness of the top four teams means that clean weekends for Norris, Piastri and Verstappen are key to ensure they don't fall behind Ferrari and Mercedes and lose potentially crucial points to their title rivals.
And with only one race to go the pressure will ramp up as a poor result, or worst still a non-score, could knock you out of contention entirely.
YAS MARINA, ABU DHABI
McLaren should be good at Yas Marina, given that there's an abundance of straights and fast corners that reward their aero efficient car – but as mentioned previously, Red Bull have made gains in this area.
And frankly, if we're at a title decider potentially with two teams involved, the way Norris, Piastri and/or Verstappen deal with the intense pressure that comes with still being in the fight at the death will arguably be just as important as the pace of their respective cars.
It'll be new territory for Norris and Piastri if they are still in contention, as they'll be facing off in a title decider for the first time in their careers, with a possible first title for both of them on the line.
In contrast, if Verstappen is in contention, he knows all about the pressure that comes with such an occasion, having won his first title in an Abu Dhabi decider in 2021 – and that could give him an edge. He'll need to be close enough on points, though, to even be a factor.
In terms of form, Norris was mighty in Abu Dhabi last year – converting pole into victory but he'll have likely been pushed hard by Piastri had his team mate not been tagged into a spin by Verstappen at Turn 1.
Verstappen, meanwhile, has won four of the last five Abu Dhabi Grands Prix – and thus can never discounted. Even if he's out of play by then, he could still have a big influence on the title if he gets between or in front of the two McLaren drivers.
Should Piastri and Norris be neck and neck and line-up on the front row once more, with Verstappen lurking behind and two Ferraris who are likely to be quick, what a barnstormer of an opening turn and final race of the season we're in for.
